朱翻译
我写的双语小说《好运的代价》Ther Cost of Fortune“数据真假，概率估算。”陈伟脱口而出，进入他最熟悉的框架。“我们缺乏关键信息，只能假设三种情景：一、数据全真，发表顺利，市场极度看好——但样本量缺失和亚组问题让市场可能存疑，概率30%。二、数据部分真实但被美化，或有未披露缺陷，市场先涨后跌——参照类似案例，概率40%。三、数据严重瑕疵甚至造假，发表延迟或撤稿，市场负面反应——概率30%。”“Data authenticity, probability estimate.” Chen Wei blurted out, slipping into his familiar framework. “We lack key info, so three scenarios: one, data fully true, smooth publication, extreme positive market response—but missing sample size and subgroup issues may cause skepticism, 30%. Two, data partly true but embellished, or undisclosed flaws, market rises then falls—based on similar cases, 40%. Three, serious flaws or fabrication, publication delayed or retracted, negative reaction—30%.”
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